A cup of coffee was already expensive enough, many of the factors are driving up farmers’ costs to grow the beans. And it could begin filtering down at your local cafe before the end of the year.
After sticking for years near in $1 per pound, coffee futures. The price large-volume buyers have now finally agreed to pay for coffee upon delivery months down the road. In late July, the heights weren’t reached since 2014. Though prices have eased a bit, they remain elevated at about $1.90 per pound.
Coffee lovers are already paying $8 or more for a bag in the supermarket. Or up to $5 for a cup might even be over the higher prices. But we see that an incredible spike in coffee prices on the international futures market. And it doesn’t always settle down well with the consumer.
Let us have a brief look at some factors that could determine whether Americans will be paying more for their morning jolt in the near future.
A sustained drought followed by two July touches of frost blew a hole in Brazil’s coffee output. Immediately sending wholesale prices for the popular Arabica bean to more than $2 per pound. The frost will significantly affect the 2022-23 harvest, said Carlos Mera. Who analyzes the coffee markets at Rabobank.
The Brazil frosts followed COVID-related supply chain snarls, a dearth of shipping containers, labour shortages and other production hiccups. Add in rising costs for virtually everything and you have a bitter cup brewing for coffee drinkers.
“This is unprecedented,” said Alexis Rubinstein, the managing editor of Coffee & Cocoa for commodities brokerage StoneX Group. “It’s never been this perfect storm before. It’s usually just been a supply-and-demand scenario. “We’ve never been dealing with a supply and demand issue on top of a logistics issue. And on top of labour issues, on top of a global pandemic.”
RETAIL PRICES RISE?
While it’s difficult to determine the size of the crop loss in Brazil. Mera said estimates vary between 2 million and 6 million fewer bags of coffee. That’s about 12% of the output from the world’s largest producer of Arabica. The bean used for most coffee sold around the world. Lower supplies almost always mean higher prices.
Grace Wood, an industry analyst for market research firm IBISWorld, said if consumers don’t see coffee prices rise by the end of this year, they almost certainly will in 2022, as per capita demand is expected to increase.
“That is just going to contribute to more demand that is going to further disrupt operations and make it more difficult for operators who are already experiencing supply issues,” Wood said.
Mera said that people who buy coffee beans in the grocery store will likely see a more noticeable increase in prices because about half the cost of that bag on the shelf comes solely from the bean itself. However, in large coffee shops, he added, the cost of the bean only represents about 5% of your cup of hot coffee, so roasters “may not need to carry over the increases right away.”